Development and validation of a prognostic model for predicting post-discharge mortality risk in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI).

BACKGROUND: Accurately predicting post-discharge mortality risk in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) remains a complex and critical challenge. The primary objective of this study was to develop and validate a robust risk prediction model to assess the 12-month and 24-month mortality risk in STEMI patients after hospital discharge. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 664 STEMI patients who underwent PPCI at Xiangtan Central Hospital Chest Pain Center between 2020 and 2022. The dataset was randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 464) and a validation cohort (n = 200) using a 7:3 ratio. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality following hospital discharge. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was employed to identify the optimal predictive variables. Based on these variables, a regression model was constructed to determine the significant predictors of mortality. The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: The prognostic model was developed based on the LASSO regression results and further validated using the independent validation cohort. LASSO regression identified five important predictors: age, Killip classification, B-type natriuretic peptide precursor (NTpro-BNP), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and the usage of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ACEI/ARB/ARNI). The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) for the training and validation cohorts were 0.863 (95% CI: 0.792-0.934) and 0.888 (95% CI: 0.821-0.955), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for the training cohort at 12 months and 24 months was 0.785 (95% CI: 0.771-0.948) and 0.812 (95% CI: 0.772-0.940), respectively, while the corresponding values for the validation cohort were 0.864 (95% CI: 0.604-0.965) and 0.845 (95% CI: 0.705-0.951). These results confirm the stability and predictive accuracy of our model, demonstrating its reliable discriminative ability for post-discharge all-cause mortality risk. DCA analysis exhibited favorable net benefit of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram shows potential as a tool for predicting post-discharge mortality in STEMI patients undergoing PPCI. However, its full utility awaits confirmation through broader external and temporal validation.

Sex-specific impact of mild obesity on the prognosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

This study aimed to clarify the existence of the mild obesity paradox in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and assess the impact of mild obesity on the prognosis of STEMI. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on STEMI patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention at Xiangtan Central Hospital from January 1, 2020 to July 31, 2022. After excluding individuals with a body mass index (BMI) of no less than 35 kg/m2, subjects were divided into the mildly obese group (BMI, 30-35 kg/m2) and non-obese group (BMI < 30 kg/m2). The cardiovascular events and death were deemed the composite endpoints and were employed as the outcome event. The study recruited 664 patients with STEMI, including 515 males and 149 females. The mildly obese group of male patients exhibited a lower incidence of composite endpoints than the non-obese group (22.4% vs. 41.3%, P < 0.001). For female patients, no significant difference was observed in the incidence of composite endpoints between the two groups (43.6% vs. 43.8%, P = 0.987). After adjusting for confounding factors, the multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed mild obesity as an independent protective factor for male patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.32-0.69; P < 0.001]. Nevertheless, mild obesity was not associated with the prognosis of female patients (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.47-1.94; P = 0.9). In male STEMI patients, mild obesity presented a paradoxical effect in improving the prognosis and functioned as an independent protective factor for the prognosis of STEMI. However, no association between mild obesity and prognosis was found in female patients, possibly due to distinct physiological and metabolic characteristics between male and female patients, which deserved further investigation and validation.

Prognostic impact of lung ultrasound detected B-lines on hospitalised ischaemic heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction patients.

OBJECTIVES: Prognostic impact of lung ultrasound-derived B-lines (LUS-BL) in heart failure with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFmrEF) patients remains elusive. We evaluated the correlation between LUS-BL and prognosis in HFmrEF patients. METHODS: This is a subgroup analysis based on our previously published retrospective study with 1691 HFmrEF patients. This subgroup analysis involved 574 patients with LUS-BL results at admission. After discharge, patients underwent clinical follow-up for a minimum of 1 year through telephone, clinical visits or community visits. The primary endpoint was defined as cardiovascular (CV) event, including CV-related mortality or HF hospitalisation at 90 days and 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: CV event at 90 days was significantly increased with higher LUS-BL number (0, 1-2, 3-9 and ≥10: 20%, 14%, 18% and 33%, p=0.008), while CV event rate at 1 year was similar among groups (45% vs 45% vs 42% vs 50%, p=0.573). Older age, hypertension (HR=2.06, 95% CI 1.31 to 3.25), higher right ventricular diameter (>23 mm, HR=2.008, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.94), increased ratio of early transmitral flow velocity to early mitral annular velocity (>24, HR=1.79, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.26) and higher LUS-BL number (>11, HR=1.510, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.26) were identified as independent determinants associated with increased risk of CV event at 90 days after discharge. The Harrell's C-Statistic analysis, based on the Cox regression models, demonstrated a significant improvement in the predictive ability of the model that incorporated both clinical and echocardiographic risk factors along with LUS-BL (areas under the curve (AUC)=0.72) compared with the model comprising only clinical risk factors and LUS-BL (AUC=0.69, p=0.036), or to the model with echocardiographic risk factors and LUS-BL (AUC=0.68, p=0.025). CONCLUSION: In HFmrEF patients with ischaemic heart disease, admission LUS-BL>11 is independently associated with an increased risk of CV event at 90 days following discharge.

Impact of signs and symptoms on the prognosis of patients with HFmrEF.

BACKGROUND: Worsening of heart failure (HF) symptoms is the leading cause of medical contact and hospitalization of patients with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF). The prognostic value of signs and symptoms for patients with HFmrEF is currently unclear. This study investigated the prognostic impact of signs and symptoms in HFmrEF patients. METHODS: A Cox proportional risk regression model analyzed the relationship between the number of signs/symptoms and outcomes in 1691 hospitalized HFmrEF patients. Ten significant signs and symptoms were included. Patients were divided into three groups (A: ≤2, B: 3-5, C: ≥6 signs/symptoms). Stratified analysis on male and female patients was performed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death and heart failure readmission (CV events) post-discharge. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 33 months, all-cause mortality occurred in 457 patients and CV events occurred in 977 patients. Incidence of all-cause mortality was 20.7%, 32.3%* and 49.4%*† in group A, B and C of male patients, (*P < 0.05 vs. A, †P < 0.05 vs. B) and 18.8%, 33.6% and 55.8%* in group A, B and C of female patients. Incidence of CV events was 64.8%, 70.1%* and 87.5%* in group A, B and C of male patients, 61.9%, 75.3%, and 86.1%* in group A, B and C of female patients. Multivariate Cox regression showed older age, renal insufficiency, higher number of signs and symptoms (≥ 3, hazard ratio [HR] 1.317, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.070-1.621, P = 0.009; ≥6, HR 1.982, 95% CI 1.402-2.801, P < 0.001), myocardial infarction, stroke, faster heart rate on admission, and diabetes were independently associated with all-cause mortality(all P < 0.05). Similarly, higher number of signs and symptoms (≥ 3, HR 1.271, 95% CI 1.119-1.443, P < 0.001; ≥6, HR 1.955, 95% CI 1.524-2.508, P < 0.001), older age, renal insufficiency, atrial fibrillation, and diabetes were independently associated with cardiovascular events (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Higher number of symptoms and signs is associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and CV events in HFmrEF patients. Our results highlight the prognostic importance of careful inquiry on HF symptoms and related physical examination in HFmrEF patients.

Red blood cell count and risk of adverse outcomes in patients with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is associated with increased rates of heart failure (HF)-related mortality and hospitalization. No studies have focused on the association between the red blood cell (RBC) count and the prognosis of patients with HF with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFmrEF). We retrospectively analyzed the effect of the RBC count on outcome events in patients with HFmrEF. METHODS: We investigated the association of the RBC count with outcome events in 1691 patients with HFmrEF (mean age: 68 years; 35% female) in Xiangtan Central Hospital. Using Cox proportional hazards models, the RBC count was assessed as both a continuous and categorical variable. RESULTS: During follow-up (median: 33 months), cardiovascular death occurred in 168 patients (114 men and 54 women). After adjusting for established risk factors, each 1.0 × 1012 cell/L increase in the RBC count was associated with a 28% lower risk of cardiovascular death in men and a 43% lower risk in women. Patients with low RBC counts had a 0.5-fold higher risk of cardiovascular death than those with normal RBC counts. The hazard ratio for men was 1.42 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.89), and the hazard ratio for women was 1.79 (95% CI: 1.20-2.67). The RBC count was not significantly associated with the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death and HF readmission (cardiovascular events) (p > .05). CONCLUSIONS: A decreased RBC count is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with HFmrEF. Correcting a low RBC count might potentially reduce the risk of cardiovascular death in patients with HFmrEF.

Impact of atrial fibrillation on cerebro-cardiovascular outcome of heart failure with mildly-reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) often co-exist and are closely intertwined. The impact of AF on the outcome of patients with heart failure with mildly-reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) is not fully clear. This study aimed to investigate the impact of AF on the outcomes of hospitalized HFmrEF patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study included 1691 consecutive patients with HFmrEF (mean 68.2 years, 64.8% male) including 296 AF patients. Patients completed 1 year and mean of 33 month clinical follow-up after discharge by telephone interview, clinical visit, or community visit. The primary endpoint was cerebro-cardiovascular events (CCE, composite of HF rehospitalization, stroke, or cardiovascular death). After propensity score matching, 296 patients were included into the AF group (mean 71.5 years) and 592 patients into the non-AF group (mean 70.6 years). After propensity score matching, CCE at 1 year (59.1% vs. 48.5%, P = 0.003) and at a mean of 33 month (77.0% vs. 70.6%, P = 0.043). AF was independently associated with increased CCE within 1 year (HR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.61, P = 0.010) and at 33 months (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.43, P = 0.050) post-discharge after adjusted for other clinical confounders including discharge heart rate, NT-proBNP, haemoglobin, and uric acid. CONCLUSIONS: AF is independently associated with an increased risk of CCE in HFmrEF patients within 1 year and at a mean of 33 months after discharge.

Sex differences in patients with heart failure and mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction.

Clinical studies on heart failure with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFmrEF) have gradually increased. However, studies on the prognostic differences between men and women among patients with HFmrEF are few, and no evidence on sex differences in such patients exists. Therefore, we retrospectively assessed the data of patients with HFmrEF using propensity score-matched analysis (PSMA). A total of 1691 patients with HFmrEF were enrolled in the Outcome of Discharged HFmrEF Patients study (OUDI-HF study), which included 1095 men and 596 women. After propensity score matching, we compared the difference in cardiovascular (CV) events (cardiovascular death or heart failure readmission) and all-cause mortality at 90 days and 1 year after discharge between men and women using Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression. After PSMA, men with HFmrEF were 2.2 times more likely to die at 90 days than women with HFmrEF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.88; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.03-3.46; P = 0.041]. However, there was no difference in the 90-day CV events (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.75-1.22; P = 0.718). Similarly, there was no difference in all-cause mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 0.81-1.65; P = 0.417) and CV events (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.83-1.16; P = 0.817) between men and women after 1 year. Among the patients with HFmrEF, men had a higher 90-day risk of all-cause mortality than women after hospital discharge, and this risk disappeared after 1 year.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT05240118 (ESC Heart Failure. (2022). doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.14044 ).

Obesity increases cardiovascular mortality in patients with HFmrEF.

Background: High body mass index increases the risk of heart failure morbidity and mortality. It is unclear whether a high body mass index is associated with prognosis in patients with heart failure with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFmrEF). We retrospectively analyzed the effect of a high body mass index on the prognosis of patients with HFmrEF. Methods: We investigated the association between body mass index and cardiovascular death (death from any cardiovascular mechanism) in 1,691 HFmrEF patients (mean age, 68 years; 35% female) in Xiangtan Central Hospital. Using Cox proportional hazards models, body mass index was assessed as a continuous and a categorical variable. Results: Cardiovascular death occurred in 133 patients (82 males and 51 females) after 1 year of follow-up. After adjustment for established risk factors, there was a 7.5% increase in the risk of cardiovascular death for females for each increment of 1 in BMI. In contrast, changes in male body mass index were not significantly associated with cardiovascular death (P = 0.097). Obese subjects had a 1.8-fold increased risk of cardiovascular death compared with subjects with a normal body mass index. The hazard ratio for females was 2.163 (95% confidence interval: 1.150-4.066). Obesity was not significantly associated with cardiovascular death in males (P = 0.085). Conclusion: An increased body mass index is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death in patients with HFmrEF; however, this risk was mainly associated with female patients with HFmrEF and less with male patients with HFmrEF.

Risk factors of short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term cardiac events in patients hospitalized for HFmrEF.

AIMS: Clinical data on the prognostic determinants over varying periods within the same cohort of heart failure with mid-range or mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remain scarce. This study aimed to identify the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term risk factors of adverse cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in patients hospitalized for HFmrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective study included 1691 consecutive HFmrEF patients admitted to our hospital between January 2015 and August 2020. Baseline data including clinical characteristics, laboratory and cardiac imaging examinations were obtained. Patients completed at least 1 year clinical follow-up after discharge by telephone interview, clinical visit, or community visit. The primary endpoint was defined as a composite of CV death or rehospitalization for heart failure (CV events) at 3, 12, and 33 months after the diagnosis of HFmrEF. Mean age of the whole cohort was 69 (61-77) years and 64.8% were male. The median clinical follow-up was 33 (20-50) months. CV events were 17.5%, 28.2%, and 57.8% at 3, 12, and 33 months after discharge, respectively. Independent risk factors for CV events were uric acid >382 µmol/L, creatinine >100 µmol/L, N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) > 3368 pg/mL and haemoglobin <120 g/L for men and <110 g/L for women at 3 and 12 months. Pulmonary artery systolic pressure >35 mmHg and the ratio of early transmitral flow velocity to early mitral annular velocity >18 served as independent risk factors for CV events at 12 months. At 33 months, uric acid > 382 µmol/L, NT-proBNP >3368 pg/mL, and pulmonary artery systolic pressure >35 mmHg were the independent risk factors of CV events. CONCLUSIONS: Higher uric acid, creatinine, NT-proBNP, and lower haemoglobin levels at baseline are valuable serum biomarkers for risk stratification of short-term and long-term CV outcomes of HFmrEF patients. Future studies are needed to verify if intensive heart failure therapy for identified high-risk HFmrEF patients based on these four serum biomarkers could improve their short-term and long-term CV outcomes or not.

Impact of B-lines-guided intensive heart failure management on outcome of discharged heart failure patients with residual B-lines.

AIMS: Pulmonary congestion (PC) expressed by residual lung ultrasound B-lines (LUS-BL) could exist in some discharged heart failure (HF) patients, which is a known determinant of poor outcomes. Detection efficacy for PC is suboptimal with widely used imaging modalities, like X-ray or echocardiography, while lung ultrasound (LUS) can sufficiently detect PC by visualizing LUS-BL. In this trial, we sought to evaluate the impact LUS-BL-guided intensive HF management post-discharge on outcome of HF patients discharged with residual LUS-BL up to 1 year after discharge. IMP-OUTCOME is a prospective, single-centre, single-blinded, randomized cohort study, which is designed to investigate if LUS-BL-guided intensive HF management post-discharge in patients with residual LUS-BL could improve the clinical outcome up to 1 year after discharge or not. METHODS AND RESULTS: After receiving the standardized treatment of HF according to current guidelines, 318 patients with ≥3 LUS-BL assessed by LUS within 48 h before discharge will be randomly divided into the conventional HF management group and the LUS-BL-guided intensive HF management group at 1:1 ratio. Patient-related basic clinical data including sex, age, blood chemistry, imaging examination, and drug utilization will be obtained and analysed. LUS-BL will be assessed at 2 month interval post-discharge in both groups, but LUS-BL results will be enveloped in the conventional HF management group, and diuretics will be adjusted based on symptom and physical examination results with or without knowing the LUS-BL results. Echocardiography examination will be performed for all patients at 12 month post-discharge. The primary endpoint is consisted of the composite of readmission for worsening HF and all-cause death during follow up as indicated. The secondary endpoints consisted of the change in the New York Heart Association classification, Duke Activity Status Index, N terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide value, malignant arrhythmia event and 6 min walk distance at each designed follow up, echocardiography-derived left ventricular ejection fraction, and number of LUS-BL at 12 month post-discharge. Safety profile will be recorded and managed accordingly for all patients. CONCLUSIONS: This trial will explore the impact of LUS-BL-guided intensive HF management on the outcome of discharged HF patients with residual LUS-BL up to 1 year after discharge in the era of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blocker-neprilysin inhibitor. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05035459.

Case Report: Metagenomic Next-Generation Sequencing in Diagnosis of Legionella pneumophila Pneumonia in a Patient After Umbilical Cord Blood Stem Cell Transplantation.

We report a case of hospital-acquired Legionella pneumonia that was detected by metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of blood from a 7-year-old girl after umbilical cord blood stem cell transplantation (UCBT) with myelodysplastic syndrome. UCBT is traditionally associated with an increased risk of infection, particularly during the first 3 months after transplantation. Controlling interstitial pneumonia and severe infection is the key to reducing patient mortality from infection. Legionella pneumophila can cause a mild cough to rapidly fatal pneumonia. After mNGS confirmed that the pathogen was L. pneumophila, azithromycin, cefoperazone sulbactam, and posaconazole were used for treatment, and the patient's temperature decreased and remained normal. The details of this case highlight the benefits of the timely use of metagenomic NGS to identify pathogens for the survival of immunocompromised patients.